Shell expects lng demand to more than double by 2040

Global demand for lng will increase by 60 per cent by 2040 compared to today. This growth will be driven mainly by increased demand for lng in Asia, and especially from countries such as China and India. Emission reductions in transport and other sectors will also contribute to increasing demand.

So writes the energy group in its LNG Outlook published on Tuesday. Compared to the previous forecast, the outlook has been revised upwards slightly in 2024. As a result, it looks like an annual market demand for 630 to 718 million tonnes of lng will exist by 2040.

That growth is not really there yet: in 2024, global production increased by just 2 million tonnes to 401 million tonnes and that was the smallest increase in a decade. But in five years’ time, liquid gas production capacity may have increased by 170 million tonnes to meet the booming demand in Asia in particular. For instance, China is firmly expanding its import capacity and India is doing the same. In terms of exports, there are great opportunities for Qatar and the US in particular.

Road and water transport

In its LNG Outlook, Shell states that the world needs more LNG to generate energy, for cooling and heating, for industry, for transport and to meet targets for reducing harmful emissions. That the fuel will continue to play a role in all these developments, according to the company, is because it offers reliability and flexibility in meeting all the challenges ahead.

For waterborne and road transport, lng is becoming increasingly attractive as a cost-effective fuel, Shell looks ahead. Lng can already help reduce harmful emissions from transport and the way to greener and cleaner variants of the fuel is thus also open. Shell states that ships running on lng will capture an increasing market share and that by 2030 this will already require 16 million tonnes of liquefied gas annually.